Poll: What are the chances a Republican will win the White House in 2012

As the saying goes, "It's not over until the last vote is counted."

CoH please.

6 votes

#1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 12:50 PM EST

Citizen Kane-473667

Voted 50% or above since so far the mudslinging is mostly aimed at each other by the Republicans. Once the field narrows, Obama will get slammed on the economy, bailouts, Obamacare, and failed campaign promises which will reverbrate with millions of unemployed, underemployed, and foreclosed homeowners.

I've said it from the beginning--the only thing that could stop the Republicans from winning will be the Republicans. Considering their front runners of Newt, Romney, and Santorum and the election tampering already proven to keep Ron Paul from getting nominated, I seriously doubt they really want to win. I think they are trying to stall for another 4 years just to avoid as much of the problems as they can before mounting a serious battle for the White House.

JMHO...

6 votes

#1.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:57 PM EST

SpoxLogic

I voted "Do not know" simpl ybecause so many Republican controlled states have laws pretty much disenfranchising so many Dem-leaning voters. Make no mistake, the Neo-cons have this planned out very well. Just check their modus operandi over the last 30 years.

1. Fox News

2. Making sure neo-conservatives judges are elected to high power positions

3. Making sure very right-wing leaning politicians are in low - higher level postions in state and township govts.

4. The aiding and abetting done by the so-called "liberal" media, inthat no one questions these Repub pols when they come and TV and sometimes lie outright

5. And finally, the buying of Scalia, Thomas and Roberts of the US Supreme Court

10 votes

#1.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:17 PM EST

T1Truth

Apathy and laziness on the side of the Democrats and the middle is the only way they can win. It is up to all of us to get out and vote to not allow it to happen. As all of us have seen in big games when you get over confident the unthinkable can happen. What needs to be communicated to everyone that does not want to see this happen is that a low turn out will also affect the house races as well as local bills on the ballot. With a big turn out the Dems could take back the house, retain the Senate, hold onto their community initiatives, and potentially win the general by more than 58%. If this happens the Tea-publicans could be bombed into obsecurity for the next 20 years. The show within the Tea-publican party would be awsome to watch. It could even split the party into 2 to 3 seperate parties. Great viewing in any case.

14 votes

#1.3 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:18 PM EST

beej mcl

As the saying goes, "It's not over until the last vote is counted."

remember al gore being elected by the people in 2000.

12 votes

#1.4 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:31 PM EST

Ouch.

2 votes

#1.5 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:33 PM EST

beej mcl

reemember hearing about the headline in the papers nov 1948

DEWEY WINS

3 votes

#1.6 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:37 PM EST

beej mcl

point is, if you want obama to have a second term as our president, don't become complacent. make sure that you get out and vote for him when the time comes. don't go thinking that there is no way he can lose. get out and make it so.

VOTE 2012

13 votes

#1.7 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:42 PM EST

Your opinion is just as valid as anyone else's opinion. You are right about the mudslinging. And it will be revved up 100-fold once the Republican presidential candidate is selected ... by both sides.

T1Truth

Apathy and laziness on the side of the Democrats and the middle is the only way they can win

When I first checked this poll's results there were 87 votes. Of course, this is no scientific poll by any stretch of the imagination. Yet, 46 percent voted 50-percent or greater the Republican candidate had a chance to win. Five-percent did not know. This means that less than 50-percent believe President Obama has a chance to win. Voter apathy and laziness is real and could play a huge role in the upcoming election.

9 votes

#1.8 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:42 PM EST

IRESPOND-2315268

Icaution those who don't think Republicans don't have a chance is to remember the 2000 general election. Does Bush v. Gore ring a bell? I would equally caution those "writing off" the incumbent, President Barack Obama, to remember what happened in 2004.

I could not agree more. I was SHOCKED when Bush won the Presidency for the second time. We all thought that it was going to be a landslide and got complacent. Flash News! There are many out there that think that Santorum is the messiah that has come to redeem us from the boogie man.

Please remember that all votes count, and don't think for a minute that the GOP won't put a stunt the last minnute to steal the Presidency, just llike they did with Al Gore. After all, 5 justices are on the side of the "Conservatives"

9 votes

#1.9 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:57 PM EST

Lynn-410457

IRESPOND, I remember an election that the GOP thought they had tied up also. It was the re-election of Clinton that they thought they would sweep. LOL

5 votes

#1.10 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:03 PM EST

Radio Free America

The GOP is secure that its voter ID campaign will worked plus whatever corrupted measures they may take and then being bailed out (rescued) by the current majority on the Supreme Court. Many will stay home due to this treat and not because they are lazy. The right to vote also includes the right not to vote. Not voting reasons encompass more than laziness. The get out the vote this time must also include for precautions sake assistance in obtaining ID's.

3 votes

#1.11 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:04 PM EST

IF America wants a return to the policies of the SHRUB, stay home and don't vote.

COMPLACENCY is the enemy of the PEOPLE this year (as it ALSO was in 2010)

When the rightwingnutreligionazis have the ABILITY to just say NO!NO!NO!, they DO. Look at what happened with the budget control super-committee - ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! These past 1-1/2 years should have been ENOUGH to show us what "they" want.

8 votes

#1.12 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:37 PM EST

GA Girl-718836

My personal hope is about as much as a snowball's chance in hell!

5 votes

#1.13 - Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:34 AM EST

Chucky Stuart

I chose less than 50%. I personally agree with the above definitions of all the candidates; however, Pres. Obama does have some victories he can campaign on. The economy is recovering, albeit very slowly but surely. And the success of the auto bailouts saved lots of jobs and made the American auto industry successful again (regardless of what your opinion of the bailouts was in the first place, one cannot argue that they did not succeed). And the recent GOP obsession with contraceptives is a losing message all the way around. Most folks either don't care at all or disagree outright. Yep, Pres. Obama has the edge, in my opinion.

10 votes

#2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:30 PM EST

however, Pres. Obama does have some victories he can campaign on

I agree. His victories will be ignored or negatively spun by his opponents, but they are victories none-the-less.

5 votes

#2.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:16 PM EST

SpoxLogic

however, Pres. Obama does have some victories he can campaign on

How's this for an Obama campaign ad. Just show the graphic of all the jobs gained over the last 23 months, and have a voice over asking folks to think about how much better things would've been had the Republicans put the country first instead of trying to make the President a one term president. Then just for good measure throw in all the folks like Sen McConnell, Limbaugh etc who said that very thing publicly.

7 votes

#2.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 9:59 PM EST

tyler-1708225

I wait for the final results, no excuses to have to make afterward. We did see in Bush/Kerry and again in 2010 that the republicans aren't dead like the left claims each election. So who knows. A republican defeat in 2012 will not mean as much as an Obama defeat will, after all how many presidents have been denied a second term. As a sitting president he has the advantage, but a landslide? We will have to see.

5 votes

#3 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:31 PM EST

Fufu

Even Rasmussen, the most conservative mainstream (using this term very, very loosely as Rasmussen is so conservative that its numbers don't even fall within a standard deviation of any other mainstream outlet) polling outlet, puts Santorum 10 points behind President Obama. Gingrich is further back. Paul is further back. Romney is within 10 points.

If anyone other than Romney gets the GOP nomination, President Obama will win by 20% or more. If Romney gets the nomination, President Obama will still likely win by 5%.

7 votes

#3.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:44 PM EST

I voted 'zero' percent because that's what it is. It's a long way from the election, i know. But the opposition is so dismal, and has been behaving so badly, especially in their self inflicted war on women, they'll be lucky to even sniff the White House!!

14 votes

#3.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:00 PM EST

fireryone

I also voted zero percent. I think the out cry against birth control coverage is the final nail.

12 votes

#3.3 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:09 PM EST

tyler

We did see in Bush/Kerry and again in 2010 that the republicans aren't dead like the left claims each election. So who knows

I agree with you. The Republicans aren't dead. I remember in 2006 when Democrats won both houses; they figurately nailed the coffin shut on the future of the Republican party by publicly mocking how dead Republicans were.

Ms. CYPRAH

But the opposition is so dismal, and has been behaving so badly, especially in their self inflicted war on women ...

I concur. If this behavior continues, the election results won't be pretty for the Republican nominee.

5 votes

#3.4 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:31 PM EST

I will say, though, that until the RETHUGs return to a more "moderate" position, the chance I will support one of their candidates ranges between "slim" and "NONE!"

3 votes

#3.5 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:41 PM EST

agagnu

I think if you don't call Obama bluff playing card game and move across to play chess your opinion of Obama will be very different. With that game change even Ron Paul cannot bluff about knowing the Constitution and Obama will win four more years.

7 votes

#4 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:49 PM EST

Widewillie

I voted <50%.

Sans a truly catastrophic political event in the next 8.5 months...like Pres. Obama smacking an elderly white woman at a campaign stop...while yelling 'allahu akbar'...I would say he's likely to win re-election in November.

There is no viable/electable alternative for me as a voter...amongst the current crop of GOP candidates.

Dr. Ron Paul is the only one I could...or would... possibly vote for. But he has no chance of winning the General Election, IMO.

8 votes

#5 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:14 PM EST

Sans a truly catastrophic political event in the next 8.5 months...like Pres. Obama smacking an elderly white woman at a campaign stop...while yelling 'allahu akbar'...I would say he's likely to win re-election in November.

Thanks for the priceless laugh before I go to bed!! :o)

8 votes

#5.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:14 PM EST

TR-421173

Depends on the elderly white woman, say, if he did it to Pelosi, I think he would move even higher in the polls. Just sayin' ;)

4 votes

#5.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:16 PM EST

Now if we lined up Pelosi and Jan Brewer ...

Bipartisan and something for everyone!

6 votes

#5.3 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:32 PM EST

Bipartisan and something for everyone!

Nan and Jan! Twins in a political comedy reality show. lol.

5 votes

#5.4 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:37 PM EST

Fred Evil

This particular thread is onto something! I hate that because I am liberal, I am always assumed to rabidly support Pelosi, when in fact I find her to be one of the core cancers of Congress.

I voted less than 50%, though anything can happen. I believe it will almost entirely depend on the economy and jobs. Obama has a number of wins, but a number of points on which he fumbled, no doubt. His support is there, but could be swayed by a reasonable candidate from the Right. Trouble is, none of those left standing even remotely approach reasonable. Well, Romney does, but his own party can't resolve its own issues with his religion.

4 votes

#5.5 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 9:40 PM EST

I hate that because I am liberal, I am always assumed to rabidly support Pelosi, when in fact I find her to be one of the core cancers of Congress.

Fred, I am in the same boat. For me it started with the constant smirking when she became Speaker, he immediate attitude of confrontation then her inability to get anything done when the Dems had a majority. As a Democrat, I was embarrassed.

5 votes

#5.6 - Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:27 PM EST

DocPhil

when a party has its fingers on a permanent implosion button, the chances of winning any competitive election goes down the drain......on issue after issue, the republicans have taken positions that do not resonate positively with the great majority of the electorate........that and an improving economy will make whoever the republican candidate is a sacrificial lamb.

7 votes

#6 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:24 PM EST

The Republicans do appear to be imploding on many of the social issues, despite the views of the electorate. Is also seems as though they have forgotten about, or do not want to remember, the fact that the economy's slowly improving. It will be interesting. Thanks DocPhil.

3 votes

#6.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:43 PM EST

when a party has its fingers on a permanent implosion button

You can say that again, DocPhil. It seems they lost some key brain cells some time ago!! :o(

5 votes

#6.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:13 PM EST

TR-421173

Wow & in less than 20 min on a Sunday, (& about 40 some votes in) the greater than 50% went from 0 % (no votes) to 58% and another hundred votes but no comments or seed being voted up. Seems someone may be voting more than once?¿?

4 votes

#7 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 2:59 PM EST

Yup, voter fraud is a conservative issue!

4 votes

#7.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:02 PM EST

Seems someone may be voting more than once?¿?

You could be right, TR. Or ... could it simply mean that many of those voting actually think a Republican has a chance of winning? See post #1.8. I agree with Roy. Conservatives have made voter fraud an issue.

1 vote

#7.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 4:30 PM EST

not that it matters, but all that it would take is a proxy server and several email addresses. I am surprised (as in perplexed surprised) about the 2% voting for 100% certain...

The poll would have been a bit more "valuable" with a bit more granularity - say "Over 75%, 50 to 75, 25 to 50, less than 25%".

Most of the pollsters are seeing responses for Obama in the "over 50% but less than 70%" range.

Once the single target is established, the DEMs can fire for effect. Right now it's merely a matter of watching RETHUG "friendly fire" from the various candidates attack EACH OTHER.

2 votes

#7.3 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:52 PM EST

MNniceguy

HA!

With this current crop of GOP candidates.

ZERO!

9 votes

#8 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:24 PM EST

Vooda

Totally agree! The republican candidates are all trying to out christian taliban each other (over women's rights) to the point of ridiculousness! I believe most women don't care to have basic health care rights stolen from them and they don't care to wear burqa's either.

Obama will slash and destroy any of these mini-brains in a debate.....

Obama all the way 2012!

7 votes

#8.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 6:24 PM EST

DO NOT SAY ZERO. That was the type of complacency that had the headlines say "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!" We CANNOT afford similar complacency as we saw in 2010.

Get the broom - sweep them out - unless you LIKE this congress lacking in ANY support for ANYTHING

4 votes

#8.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:56 PM EST

MNniceguy

Hear you: canary:

The American Middle Class can not lay down in complacency!

Not when the GOP/TP will pull every dirty trick in the book for power!

There view for U.S is NO Dam# good.

DITTO: Get the broom - sweep the GOP out American Middle, time to get rid of this GOP hate fest in Nov.

Then we as a people can grow,, Together as Americans.

WE want our nation back from the greed of the few!

5 votes

#8.3 - Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:25 AM EST

steven-791492

So far the clowns running on the right do not have a prayer, of winning the White House.

7 votes

#9 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:49 PM EST

steven. I hope that you are right.

5 votes

#9.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 3:50 PM EST

Shub Tnediserp Remrof

40-45% for GOP and for Obama leaving that extra amount for the smaller parties

2 votes

#10 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 4:34 PM EST

Vooda

Is that you George? lol

4 votes

#10.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 6:25 PM EST

60:40 is about what I'm guessing. Obama wins

Speaking of da SHRUB - I don't expect to see him endorse ANYONE - most of the rightwingnut faithful seem to view his endorsement as a condemnation. He will be better of to just keep his mouth shut...

2 votes

#10.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:59 PM EST

Lynn-410457

They do not have a chance in hell. That's why all the desperate crap is coming out now! They are trying to circle the wagons and repair their damage, but its too late! We know you.

7 votes

#11 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:24 PM EST

Tony Wlliams

I have been an Independent Voter my whole life. I've looked at the facts and weighed the character of every person I've ever voted for. I've voted for people on both sides of the party line because they where the best person for the job at the time and then I've voted against them because the next person was better.

Right now I haven't seen a single Republican that can beat Obama. This Nation can ill afford another Recession and most of the Republicans running today have ideals that would not only lead us into another one but would destroy our Constitution as written in the process.

This Nation was built on the backs of every Nationality that has ever lived here. From the former slave who plowed the fields, the Asain who built the railroads, the Hispanic who reaped the harvest for the farmers to get their wares to market, the Jewish who helped to not only entertain but also taught us that suffering is not limited to skin color, the Italian who showed us that banning together that we can't be stopped an that wages should equal the job performed, and the White man who wrote the Constitution when he saw that this melting pot we live in is greater as a whole and should never be divided.

Each and every one of the Rpublicians running today be them black or white has been catering to just one section of our population and have forgotten that we are suppose to look after each other as a whole.

8 votes

#12 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:31 PM EST

Each and every one of the Rpublicians running today be them black or white has been catering to just one section of our population and have forgotten that we are suppose to look after each other as a whole

Thanks for the outstanding comment. You are correct IMO, "we are suppose to look after each other as a whole."

5 votes

#12.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:28 PM EST

digcreation

I do not see any of the current candidates being able to defeat Obama.

oh and you forgot a criticism of Ron Paul.. supported by (and therefore influenced) racists.

7 votes

#13 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:35 PM EST

Oops! My bad. So noted.

3 votes

#13.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:06 PM EST

B.L. Frazer (NYC)

Why is Obama considered incompetant? I think he has done a very good job considering the obstruction he has had to endure from day 1 of his term. I wouldn't call that incompetant; I would call that perserverance.

11 votes

#14 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:41 PM EST

Really?-2872425

Yeah, B.L.Frazer, my take is similar.

We have the right denouncing things like Obamacare, though the main problem isn't everyone buying healthcare. It is the fact single payer was left out for the Republicans and it will cost all more. His foreign objectives have done more to get rid of the actual threat of Al Qaeda and bin Laden, but the right again says he's not strong on defense cause we don't go full throttle against Iran. Jobs are slowly coming back, again he is roasted cause it isn't fast enough, even though no president has faced such a weak jobs prospect in decades.

We have the left whom thinks he sold out because of banks bailed out and considered to big to fail. We have weak job growth and a collapse of the housing market with bailouts not for individuals as much as for corporate America again. We have Bush tax cuts extended over unemployment hostage taking etc...

At times it does seem he is the only one who is really interested in compromise and trying solutions that maybe aren't favorable, but trying to keep the economy stimulated while actually trying to get some change.

As I fit into the category of disliking some of what he has done, liking other stuff he has brought about. It appears to me that he is in reality the only adult in the room full of politicians, if you will.

6 votes

#14.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 6:10 PM EST

...the only adult in a room full of CHILDISH politicians...

2 votes

#14.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:13 PM EST

B.L.

Why is Obama considered incompetant?

It's not that it's true, it's how some view him. For example, those who think he's a Muslim, was born in Kenya, or that he's a terrorist who hates America. Many of the folks opposed to the presidency of Barack Obama either refuse to look at the facts or have chosen to ignore them.

2 votes

#14.3 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:16 PM EST

PCMan-615609

Obama is incompetent..!!!!……..He is a mouth piece, a puppet and a pawn that hasn’t a clue or a minute of experience in any function of the job……No military, economic or management skills whatsoever…!! The exposure of these inadequacies has been clearly demonstrated the last several years and the American people beyond this forum……will speak loudly to that affect come November..!!

2 votes

#14.4 - Mon Feb 20, 2012 8:34 AM EST

will speak loudly to that affect come November..!!

Keep on wishing in your delusion. He is not a perfect president, but there isn't a single Republican standing that measures up to him just now, as you will see in November!

3 votes

#14.5 - Mon Feb 20, 2012 8:41 AM EST

kj031056-1

He is a mouth piece, a puppet and a pawn that hasn’t a clue or a minute of experience in any function of the job……No military, economic or management skills whatsoever…!! The exposure of these inadequacies has been clearly demonstrated the last several years and the American people beyond this forum……will speak loudly to that affect come November..!!

That is so ridiculous.....he has 3 1/2 years of experience and will much more experience being President than any of the other contenders who will all have zero......

5 votes

#14.6 - Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:26 AM EST

lizard legs

If Obama wasn't for Amnesty for illegals he would win by a landslide even considering the loss of some Latino votes. 64 percent of Americans are opposed to his policy on illegal immigrants. Source for the percentage is PBS's Need to Know poll.

#15 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:58 PM EST

digcreation

very few people vote on one issue.

4 votes

#15.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 6:07 PM EST

Spike Evans

I voted that there's a 100% percent chance that Obama will be reelected and was stunned to see that I was only 2% of the vote.

Man, ya'all have little faith in the American electorate.......uh, wait....

....this is pretty much the same American electorate that put Bush Jr. in there twice......uh....

....can I change my vote?

2 votes

#16 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 6:12 PM EST

maria lyn

I think it would be dangerous to Our Country/and Our Rights if that occurs. The thought really frightens me.

2 votes

#17 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 7:36 PM EST

The thought really frightens me

Me too, maria lyn. If you and I were the only two making the decision in November, we wouldn't have any reason to be frightened.

2 votes

#17.1 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:23 PM EST

B.L. Frazer (NYC)

The thought of Republicans (who have no concern for women's rights) getting control of the W.H. should scare everyone.

6 votes

#17.2 - Sun Feb 19, 2012 8:25 PM EST